New data from HMRC reveals a notable rise in transactions during October, suggesting buyers and sellers continued to act even as policy uncertainty loomed. However, with the Chancellor’s proposed council tax reforms now confirmed, the market faces a more complex adjustment period.

For businesses, investors and homeowners alike, the coming months will be defined not by uncertainty, but by how quickly the market absorbs and adapts to structural change.

Policy context: from speculation to reality

In the run-up to the Budget, widespread “kite flying” around potential reforms created hesitation across the property sector. Council tax reform, particularly at the upper end of the market, has long been politically sensitive, and the lack of clarity risked dampening transaction volumes.

Mark Cunningham, Partner, notes that activity held up better than many expected:

Despite the kite flying and uncertainty created in the long run up to the budget, HMRC’s statistics show an unexpected rise in October transactions, showing resilience in the market. Which after the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves shake up of council tax bands, will be vital in the coming months.

This resilience matters. Property transactions act as a bellwether for wider economic confidence, influencing consumer spending, construction, professional services and local tax receipts. A slowdown would have rippled well beyond estate agents and developers.

What the data tells us

HMRC data show seasonally adjusted completions up 2% month on month to 98,450, and non-seasonally adjusted transactions up 13%. But the measures announced in the budget will now shape future activity over the next six months.

In practical terms, this suggests many buyers chose to proceed despite looming policy changes – either to lock in decisions ahead of reform or because underlying drivers such as family needs, relocation or investment timelines outweighed short-term uncertainty.

However, historical experience shows that once tax changes move from proposal to implementation, behaviour often shifts rapidly. The next six months will be crucial in determining whether October proves a high-water mark or the foundation for renewed momentum.

Implications across the market

High-value properties face adjustment

At the upper end of the market, I anticipate some disruption to transaction numbers and price adjustments as buyers and sellers realign their expectations, following the announcement of the High Value Council Tax Surcharge.

For sellers, this may mean reassessing pricing strategies. For buyers, especially internationally mobile individuals and owner-occupiers, it introduces a new variable into long-term affordability calculations.

Landlords may accelerate exits

Transaction numbers may also be lifted by landlords exiting portfolios following the announced 2% property income tax increase, accelerating disposals in the coming months.

This could increase supply in certain segments, potentially easing pressure for owner-occupiers but also putting downward pressure on prices in areas with high investor concentration.

Outlook: cautious optimism with uneven recovery

With the Budget now behind us, uncertainty has at least been replaced by clarity. That alone can unlock delayed decision-making. Combined with a more stable economic backdrop and expectations of interest rate cuts, conditions are in place for gradual recovery.

As Mark concludes:

With Budget uncertainty now behind us, a stabilising economic environment, and anticipated interest rate cuts, we expect transactions to gradually pick up, though the dynamics will differ across price segments.

The key message for businesses is that the property market is not moving in one direction. Different price points, regions and ownership models will respond differently, creating both risks and opportunities.

Why it matters to businesses and individuals

Property decisions influence balance sheets, workforce mobility and long-term wealth planning. For corporates, executive relocation costs and commercial confidence are linked to residential market health. For individuals, council tax reform changes the lifetime cost of owning property, not just the purchase price.

Understanding these dynamics early allows for better strategic decisions – whether that means timing a transaction, restructuring a portfolio, or revisiting affordability assumptions.

What you should consider / do next

Review transaction timing: Buyers and sellers should assess whether acting sooner mitigates exposure to future price or tax adjustments.

Revisit affordability models: Factor in ongoing council tax costs, not just mortgage rates or purchase prices.

Landlords should stress-test portfolios: Consider the combined impact of higher income tax, potential price adjustments and financing costs.

Seek proactive advice: Tailored tax and structuring advice can help manage exposure as policy changes bed in.

Would you like to know more?

If you have any questions about the above, please get it touch with your usual Blick Rothenberg contact or Mark using the form below.