The Bank of England stated earlier this week they expect that the UK economy will now grow by 1.1%, slightly faster than they previously anticipated. But HMRC’s latest report shows that residential transactions reached 98,700 on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, marginally higher than May’s 98,460 and 2% above June 2025 levels, suggesting that buyers are still looking for greater certainty before making long term financial commitments.

Mark Cunningham, Partner, said:

Residential property purchases require confidence not only in current affordability levels but also in future financial prospects, and that confidence remains somewhat fragile

These figures should be viewed in context, as they relate to completions and therefore reflect decisions that were typically made at least two to four months ago. Many of those decisions will have been taken against an environment of uncertainty around inflation, energy prices, the future path of interest rates and potential changes to property taxation. The housing market often takes time to absorb economic and policy developments, with their impact only becoming fully apparent several months later.

Mark concluded:

The Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75% provides a degree of stability, but ongoing concerns around inflation and borrowing costs are likely to continue to weigh. Continued uncertainty over how the market may respond to future property tax changes, including those around higher value homes, may be encouraging some buyers to reconsider and delay

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