Mark Cunningham, a Partner at the firm, said:

HMRC’s latest property statistics are a ray of hope for the market, as they show signs of transaction momentum building when looking at the figures on a six-month average. Price sensitive buyers appear to be becoming less cautious, likely speculating that interest rates may fall in the near term and improve affordability.

The data provides insight into how the market has been recalibrating after the recent changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), which came into effect in April 2025. The rule change led to a notable shift in buyer behaviour as completions were pulled forward to beat the tax rise, creating a temporary lull in recorded transactions.

The SDLT change which came into effect in April 2025 distorted transaction data in recent months, as buyers brought forward completions to avoid additional tax. This resulted in a fall in transactions in April (provisionally 56,610), followed by a recovery in May (provisionally 80,530) as the market began to normalise.

While the figures for May 2025 remain below the same period last year (92,920 transactions in May 2024), the upward shift is being viewed as an early indication of stabilisation. Market dynamics are beginning to respond to interest rate expectations, and there is cautious optimism that this could be the start of a more sustained recovery.

May 2025 transactions are still down on May 2024 (92,920), likely reflecting the continued impact of that earlier acceleration. But overall, we are seeing the start of what a positive change for the property market could be.

However, the outlook is not without uncertainty. With a government budget on the horizon, speculation about potential tax rises may temper buyer sentiment in the months ahead.

The potential for tax rises in the budget later this year may suppress that optimism, unless the Government sets out its intentions clearly.

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