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A German recession will follow a no-deal Brexit

German exports to the UK have dropped by 4% over a 12-month period.

While the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, travels to Berlin today for his first visit to meet his German counterpart, it was confirmed that German exports to the UK have dropped by 4% over a 12-month period. Given the weak performance of the German economy in the second quarter, this has concerned analysts further.

The uncertainty around Brexit has significantly unsettled the German export economy, now showing a decline of German-British trade.

Alex Altmann, partner at Blick Rothenberg and head of firm’s German Desk said, “The uncertainty around Brexit has significantly unsettled the German export economy, now showing a decline of German-British trade. Ano-deal Brexit would lead to a significant further drop in exports to the UK, resulting in a recession of the German economy.”

Altmann, who is also a Co-Chairman of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany, initiated a German business leader conference in April this year, which came to the conclusion that a no-deal Brexit should be avoided under all circumstances as it would cost the German economy billions of Euros.

Altmann said, “A no-deal Brexit will bring customs barriers, regulatory diversion and uncertainty around immigration rules, which will cost the German economy around 1% of GDP and potentially 200,000 jobs in Germany and the UK.”

He added, “The pressure is on Angela Merkel to find a solution to the Brexit deadlock or face significant economic damage to the German economy for years to come. Germany’s export industry will be watching the next couple of weeks very closely in order to prepare for the worst.”

For more information, please contact Alex Altmann.